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  OUR PREDICTIONS 2017...  
  Having shared our key events of 2016, we have decided to gather the views of our investment team on the directions and driving forces for economy and VC/PE in the coming months.  
  MCI TEAM's PREDICTIONS for 2017
 
 
 
Global & European economy

It’s hard to see any solid bases for stable wide-spread economic growth. European economy could reach growth of approx. 1.5%, with continuous financial stimulation. Banks, being one of the most important sectors, albeit with better balance sheets, could still struggle to improve ROE ratio. The need to adapt to Basel III from 2019 onwards will not help them either.
 
 
 
Polish economy
Approx. 3% in GDP growth is expected. The biggest challenges at the macro level could be that the economy is little dependent on technology and that Poles are one of the fastest ageing societies in Europe.

Still, with innovation becoming a buzzword, and even though actions must follow, there is a good vibe around Polish economy. With an increasing number of entrepreneurs concentrating on the digital sectors, the productivity of the economy should increase in no time.

 
 
 More M&As'

...expected in 2017, with corporate groups acquiring assets outside of their core businesses. Those consolidation processes can be especially visible in technology (e-commerce, fintech), health-care and infrastructure sectors.
 
 
 On the Warsaw Stock Exchange

...there could be more de-listing processes observed. What could be a boost for the Polish capital market, are the new regulations for pension policies. As part of long term investments, related to Employee Capital Plans, they could actually end up in PE funds, that by nature have a longer investment horizon and are more resistant to sudden shifts of the stock exchange markets.
 
 
 General digital economy trends

Few developments likely to occur here:
  • This could finally be the year when machine learning, AI and VR start playing significant roles. It’s been long time coming, but 2017 could be the time for them to shine. We have seen the first glimpse with Pokemon Go, but there could just be so much more to it; Apple and Samsung could launch AR enabled phones in 2018, and reach millions of mobile users within 2-3 years.
  • Fintech will still be a hot topic, with more investments, especially in B2B solutions. With B2C companies, consolidation processes could commence.
  • Consolidation is also expected in e-commerce, as a result of reduction of equity investments.
 
 
 VC/early growth in Poland

  • Following the completion of a national program (by KFK), less VC/seed transactions will happen. It’s unlikely that we will observe a huge interest from foreign funds. This is also down to the history, where one can find only a few examples of a Polish company having a successful financial rounds from international investors. 
  • Widely discussed is the curse of 35 million people – market that seems big makes the entrepreneurs do not think regional or global from the start.
 
 
 HOT or NOT

  • 2017 can be the time of the validation of many SaaS models. B2C is extremely difficult to succeed; B2B only a little bit easier.
  • IOT – well, we are still waiting for the next big thing here. Smartwatches are almost gone now, remote control is still relatively limited, beacons have not changed the way we do shopping… adaptation takes time.
  • It also seems that the flash sale model in Poland has run-down. At the same time, it’s difficult to see a new e-commerce brand to come up and take the market by storm.
  • Even the applications around fintech solutions are building the scale at a relatively slow pace.
  • So what is HOT… perhaps the established digital businesses that will be able to take the next step and take advantage of constantly improving innovation adaptation in the society.
  • FoodTech; despite the vast size of the agriculture and groceries markets, it’s still relatively running with little digital disruption. This has to change at some point…
  • Despite its complexity, we all can notice now that self-driving cars are closer to what we could have thought 2-3 years ago. And since the technology is almost ready, it will for sure find many applications and change the way we travel and commute.
  • Poland is known for its gaming companies, and here, cloud solutions can be a little pretty revolution.
 
  Regardless of all the trends and forecasts, we still strongly believe in the digital economy. World around us, is changing. Let’s all make the best effort so that the change for the good is experienced by all of us.

 

 
  MEET OUR TEAM:  
  We would like to take this opportunity to share with you the contact details and competences of our investment team members. Feel free to contact them with any valid cause:

MCI Capital Managing Partner:
 
 
    TOMASZ CZECHOWICZ
czechowicz@mci.eu
 
       
  MCI.EuroVentures - PE & buy-out:  
 
    MACIEJ KOWALSKI
kowalski@mci.eu
 
       
    ŁUKASZ WIERDAK
wierdak@mci.eu
 
       
  MCI.TechVentures - growth:  
 
    SYLWESTER JANIK
janik@mci.eu
 
       
    TOMASZ DANIS
danis@mci.eu
 
       
 
  MCI.CreditVentures - junior and mezzanine debt:  
 
    KRZYSZTOF KONOPIŃSKI
konopinski@pemanagers.eu
 
       
  Internet Ventures - VC:  
 
    MICHAŁ WRZOŁEK
wrzolek@mci.eu
 
       
    TOMASZ DANIS
danis@mci.eu
 
       
 
     
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